The size, sectoral composition and growth of the economy determine the revenue potential of the state as well as the size of the budget.The size of the budget determines the kind of public expenditure of the Government. The economy is measured in terms of GSDP both at current and constant prices.State Domestic Product (SDP) is the total value of goods and services produced during any financial year within the geographical boundaries of a state. It is also called the state income. It serves as an indicator for measuring the economic prosperity of the state and to study the structural changes taking place in the economy. The estimate of State Domestic Product reveals the extent and direction of changes in the levels of economic development of the state over a period of time. Assam is one of the potential states registering high growth in terms of GVA and GSDP.
Globally economic growth suffered a huge setback due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic further imposing complete and partial lockdowns for two consecutive years in the State. The income of the State in the FY 2020-21 suffered to a great extent but with the efforts of the government andtheir policies, the economy of the state was able to recover in the next year.
During the period of the last four years i.e. FY 2018-19 to FY 2021-22, the State achieved an annual average growth rate of 8.6 per cent in terms of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) at current prices reflected a moderate growth of the State Economy despite the state facing COVID-19 pandemic along with the rest of country and the world. Agriculture and allied services have been the major driving sector to boost the economy of the State. During the year 2020-21, the agriculture and allied sector achieved a favourable growth rate of 12.98 per cent as against (-) 8.42 per cent and (-) 2.74 per cent in the industry and service sectors respectively. During the lockdown period, the industry and service sectors had been adversely affected in the state, resulting in a negative growth rate in these two sectors.
The overall economy of Assam is estimated to be achieved at 9.1 per cent in FY 2021-22 as compared to 8.7 per cent at the All India level.
As per the advance estimates, the GSDP for Assam at current prices for the FY 2022-23 is likely to be attained at the level of Rs. 4,38,096 croreas against Rs. 3,92,205 crore in FY 2021-22 reflecting a growth of 11.7 per cent.
As per the first advance estimates of Govt. of India, the GDP of the nation at current prices for the FY 2022-23 is estimated to be achieved a level of Rs.273.08 lakh crore showing annual growth of 15.4 per cent over the previous financial year. The contribution of the GSDP of Assam to the nation’s GDP at current prices is estimated at 1.6 per cent for the FY 2022-23.
As per the advance estimates, the Per Capita Income of Assam at current prices for the FY 2022-23 is estimated to be attained at Rs112328 ascompared to Rs. 100761for the FY 2021-221 registering an increase of 11.8 per cent in 2022-23 over the previous financial year 2021-22.
The total revenue receipts of the State was Rs. 64902.19 crore in FY 2020-21 and is estimated to grow up to Rs. 96042.36 crore in FY 2021-22 with a growth of 47.98 per cent. In F.Y 2022-23 (BE), total revenue receipts of the state are expected to achieve at the level of Rs. 99662.51 crore as against Rs. 96042.36 crore in F.Y 2021-22(RE) with a surplus of Rs. 3620.15 crore in Revenue Receipts Accounts.
Total revenue expenditure was Rs. 49362.72 crore in FY 2016-17 and it increased to Rs. 65817.28 crore in FY 2020-21 with annual growth of 8.33 per cent. It is expected that revenue expenditure will increase to Rs.99752.92 in 2021-22(RE) with an increase of 54.61 per cent.
The borrowing of the state government was Rs.5649.45 crore in FY 2016-17 and it increased to Rs.19256.58 crore in F.Y 2020-21with annual growth of 60.21 per cent. On the other hand, repayment of loans was 2993.91 crore in FY 2016-17 and it increased to 3569.54 crore in F.Y 2020-21with annual growth of 4.81 per cent.
Debt stock has been gradually grown up from Rs. 38345.77 crore in F.Y 2016-17 to Rs.82741.07 crore in F.Y 2020-21 and it expected to raise to Rs. 121554.07 crore in F.Y 2022-23 (B.E). Simultaneously interest payment has grown up from Rs. 2963.75 crore in FY 2016-17 to Rs. 5199.18 crore in 2020-21 and is expected to increase Rs. 7533.65 crore in 2022-23(BE). The ratio of Debt Stock to GSDP at current prices was 15.08 per cent in F.Y 2016-17 and it increased to 23.77 per cent in F.Y 2021-22(B.E.) and is expected to increase to 27.75 per cent in 2022-23(BE).